The Threat to Federal School Data Is a Threat to Us All (Opinion)

Every major education strategy in America hinges on one fundamental question: Is it working? Yet, the vital infrastructure that allows policymakers to evaluate charter school expansion, address achievement gaps, allocate billions in federal funding, and much more is severely at risk, especially in light of workforce cuts to the U.S. Department of Education.

State and local policymakers depend on comprehensive data about student outcomes, teacher effectiveness, and systemwide performance. As executive director of the American Statistical Association, I know this evidence—meticulously gathered by the National Center for Education Statistics—shapes decisions that impact nearly 50 million public school students. However, policymakers cannot make informed decisions about education when there are threats to this fundamental data.

Indeed, the United States has never faced higher stakes in maintaining this statistical infrastructure. Consider the stark reality of pandemic learning loss: Without NCES’s sophisticated data collection and analysis, we would have no reliable way to measure the impact of school closures, evaluate the effectiveness of recovery efforts, or identify which interventions are helping students catch up. Similar data systems track the changing demands of our workforce, the return on investment in higher education, and persistent inequities in our education system. When these statistical systems are compromised—through budget cuts, staff attrition, or political interference—we lose our ability to make evidence-based decisions about the future of American education.

The erosion of our federal statistical infrastructure would create immediate blind spots in education policy. School districts allocating resources for student support services would lack reliable benchmarks for identifying at-risk populations. Without detailed data on workforce gaps and classroom effectiveness, state education departments would struggle to target their teacher training and recruitment efforts. And Congress would be forced to distribute billions in federal education funding without clear evidence about which programs work.

Beyond these institutional impacts, compromised data systems would hamstring researchers working to solve education’s most pressing challenges. My statistical colleagues at NCES collect and disseminate data that is the foundation for studies on everything from early childhood development to post-secondary completion rates. When data quality deteriorates or when crucial datasets become unavailable, it becomes nearly impossible to identify emerging problems, evaluate potential solutions, or replicate successful interventions across different contexts.

The power of robust federal education data is clear from past successes. Take the EDFacts Initiative, which is a U.S. Department of Education initiative to collect, analyze, and promote the use of high-quality pre-K-12 data. When NCES implemented standardized graduation rate reporting through this system, it revealed disparities in high school completion rates among different student populations. This more accurate picture led states to implement targeted interventions that have helped raise graduation rates for underserved communities. For example, the Decision Center for Educational Excellence at Arizona State University leverages NCES data with ASU’s Decision Theater and other researchers to analyze performance, model policy impacts, and visualize solutions to improve outcomes for students in Arizona.

Failure to maintain these systems has serious consequences for school districts all over the country: A struggling rural district could lose access to crucial teacher shortage data, leading to staffing crises; schools serving low-income communities might not receive necessary resources without accurate funding data for policymakers to review; and misleading or incomplete data could result in ineffective education policies, costing taxpayers billions and failing students.

But NCES data goes even further. Businesses rely on NCES data to understand workforce trends and skill gaps, helping them make strategic decisions about their hiring and training practices. Economic forecasters use educational attainment data to project regional growth and development patterns. Even national security analysts draw on this data to assess America’s technological leadership in critical fields.

Aside from the practical uses of NCES, such as informing policy and assessing impact, these kinds of data collections are mandatory. They don’t just inform the President, they serve to provide information to Congress and the public. Further, NCES and similar agencies operate under strict legal frameworks—including the Privacy Act, the Evidence Act, and the Education Sciences Reform Act—that require rigorous protection of personal data. These aren’t just bureaucratic requirements; they’re essential guarantees that make the entire enterprise of national education statistics possible. Hasty actions to dismantle the system create far-reaching consequences, including damaging respondents’ trust that officials will protect and handle their information professionally.

The challenges facing our federal statistical system demand immediate attention. We must act now to protect and modernize this essential infrastructure. Here are three critical steps Congress and the Trump administration must collaborate to take.

• Increase funding to federal statistical agencies. Address the chronic underfunding that has left agencies like NCES struggling to maintain aging data systems and retain skilled staff. The cost of modernizing our statistical infrastructure is significant—but far less than the cost of making education policy decisions in the dark.
• Strengthen protections of the agencies. Respect and reinforce the legal and institutional safeguards that shield statistical agencies from political interference. These agencies need clear authority to maintain scientific integrity and independence, even when their findings challenge political narratives. The National Academies “Principles and Practices for a Federal Statistical Agency” clearly spells out these fundamental requirements.
• Restore public trust. Renew their collective commitment to transparency and communication. The American Statistical Association’s July 2024 report, The Nation’s Data at Risk, documented how decades of underinvestment and institutional neglect have pushed our federal statistical system to a breaking point. But this crisis also presents an opportunity to rebuild these essential institutions to meet the challenges of the future.

The administration’s recent decision to place NCES Commissioner Peggy Carr on administrative leave without publicly announcing professional cause or clear rationale particularly alarms us an example of actions that undermine trust in the federal statistical system. How can the public trust the integrity of federal statistical systems—which has taken decades to build—without transparency.

Federal statistical agencies like NCES don’t just produce reports—they create the empirical foundation that enables us to identify what works, spot emerging challenges, and direct resources where they’re needed most. Here’s what we can do to ensure these agencies and their important work don’t atrophy:

• Educators and administrators can advocate for reliable, federally collected education data that informs school policies and funding.
• Policymakers can support legislation that funds and protects NCES and other statistical agencies.
• Parents and families can stay informed and demand evidence-based policymaking from elected officials.

The time for action is now. Congress, the Trump administration, and the public must recognize that protecting and modernizing our statistical infrastructure isn’t just a technical issue—it’s an essential investment in America’s educational future.