The federal government is on the brink of shutting down later this week—and schools could struggle as a result, especially if the shutdown lasts more than a few days.
Potential consequences include delayed funding and services for education nationwide; layoffs of federal staff beyond those implemented earlier this year; and an acceleration of the Trump administration’s stated goal of reducing the federal government’s role in supporting education.
Federal lawmakers appear far apart on an agreement to extend federal government funding beyond the Sept. 30 end of the current fiscal year. House Republicans have moved to extend funding into November, but Senate Democrats—whose support is essential for an agreement—say they want more protections for their constituents against spending cuts and policy changes Republicans approved along party lines earlier this year.
A shutdown that lasts even a few days could have ripple effects for schools across the nation, after a year of escalating tumult for the Education Department that has resulted in hundreds of millions of dollars in education grants cut or discontinued and schools struggling to keep up with a flurry of dramatic policy changes that evolve as legal challenges play out.
Here’s what you need to know about a potential government shutdown.
Will the government shut down?
House Republicans on Sept. 19 approved a continuing resolution that extends current federal spending levels for seven weeks while lawmakers work out the finer details of a full budget. The chamber’s lawmakers have recessed ever since, leaving the Senate with a narrow window to negotiate over whether to approve or reject the House proposal.
The Republican majority in the Senate needs at least seven Democratic votes in favor of any budget legislation. As of Sept. 29, Senate Democrats have said they’re unwilling to agree to the House package unless it’s modified to include permanent protections against health care benefit changes signed into law earlier this year.
Democratic leaders also appear reluctant to sign off for the second time in six months on a budget package that doesn’t protect against the Trump administration’s unilateral spending cuts and changes, like withholding billions of dollars of formula funds on the date states expected to receive them, or excising entire grant programs without notice or congressional approval.
How long will a shutdown last?
Although lawmakers have come close to missing the agreement deadline several times in recent years, a shutdown starting this week would be the first in seven years.
The federal government shut down on three separate occasions in the 2010s: once for 16 days in 2013 during President Barack Obama’s second term, and twice in 2018 during Trump’s first term. It did not shut down during Joe Biden’s presidency.
The second of the 2018 shutdowns stretched into early 2019, lasting 35 days and breaking the record for the longest federal shutdown in American history.
Will the Ed. Dept. be able to carry out key functions mandated by law during a shutdown?
Education Secretary Linda McMahon published her agency’s shutdown contingency plan on Sept. 28. That plan calls for immediately furloughing more than 2,000 agency employees—nearly 95 percent of the overall staff—and pausing almost all activity around federal grants and civil rights enforcement.
The document says most grant funding from the agency is awarded during the summer and thus won’t be affected by a shutdown this fall.
“Grantees will continue to be able to draw down funds from these awards, and therefore, the impacts on schools and students should be minimal,” the plan says.
Top administration officials like Russell Vought, who has led the Office of Management and Budget during both Trump administrations, are urging agencies to use the shutdown as an opportunity to permanently lay off large numbers of workers. New agency plans for “reductions in force” couldn’t legally take effect for 60 days, though, and the administration has advised agencies they can revise any shutdown-era plans to lay off staff once Congress passes a budget bill and the government reopens.
Those cuts would add to the administration’s considerable staffing changes from earlier this year. The agency currently employs 2,447 people, compared with 4,176 a year-and-a-half ago, according to a shutdown plan published in March 2024 and signed by Miguel Cardona, McMahon’s predecessor.
The Trump administration already moved earlier this year to dismiss hundreds of the Education Department’s career staffers, shift functions to other agencies, and dramatically transform the federal funding landscape for education.
Even in past administrations, though, it was difficult for the agency to plan for continuing to advance its priorities during a potential shutdown, said Mary Wall, who served as deputy assistant secretary for P-12 education from 2023 through the end of the Biden administration in January. Cardona’s plan called for furloughing 90 percent of agency staff.
“Even for policies we thought were super high priority, like negotiated rulemaking or a new signature initiative that is central to the administration’s policy agenda, almost none of those activities would be considered exempt,” Wall said.
Will billions of dollars for K-12 schools flow as scheduled on Oct. 1?
The first day of the federal fiscal year also happens to be the day that billions of congressionally appropriated dollars for K-12 schools are expected by law to start flowing to states and schools.
Last year, according to federal data reported on USAspending.gov, the department sent out almost $23 billion on Oct. 1, including for thousands of federal student loans, work-study funds, and Pell grants for low-income college students, as well as K-12 formula programs like Title I for low-income students, the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act for students with disabilities, Indian Education Grants for school districts on Native American reservations, and discretionary grants for priorities like school safety, teacher training, and literacy instruction.
On July 1 of this year, the Trump administration withheld almost $7 billion schools were expecting to flow from seven formula grant programs, including for English-learner services, before- and after-school programs, and educator professional development.
As part of a court agreement to settle a legal challenge to that move from two dozen Democratic state officials, the Trump administration agreed in writing to send out October funds for the programs it targeted in July “without any new conditions or restrictions.” The administration said those funds would go out no later than Oct. 3.
McMahon’s shutdown plan says the agency “will also make Title I and IDEA grant funding available as usual” during a shutdown.
But it leaves room for the administration to hold back other formula funds. The contingency plan says the agency will only maintain funding during a shutdown for programs that, “if not continued, would prevent or significantly damage the execution of funded functions,” like keeping a school district afloat.
Even for programs that meet that standard, the plan says, funds will pause for the first week of a shutdown and continue after that “on a limited basis.”
An agency spokesperson didn’t answer a request for additional details.
AASA, The School Superintendents Association, told members in a blog post last week that it “has confirmed with Department of Education staff that the remaining FY 2025 formula funds should be made available on October 1, even in the event of a federal shutdown.”
Cardona’s 2024 plan offered a less rosy picture of the outlook for schools during a federal shutdown, though.
“A protracted delay in department obligations and payments beyond one week would severely curtail the cash flow to school districts, colleges and universities, vocational rehabilitation agencies, and other entities that depend on the department’s discretionary funds to support their services,” reads Cardona’s plan document.
Which schools and education programs will be affected if a federal shutdown continues for more than a few days?
The Education Department sends out funding on a monthly basis for certain programs. Those programs—including Impact Aid for thousands of school districts with non-taxable federal land such as military bases within their boundaries—are most likely to see disruptions if a shutdown continues for even a few weeks.
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services funding for Head Start, too, could take an almost-immediate hit if the shutdown takes place. That agency plans to keep more than 700 workers employed to “support funded programs, including issuance and management of grant and contract awards for programs with multi-year or supplemental funding.” But the agency’s contingency plan doesn’t specifically mention Head Start among programs that will continue uninterrupted.
Some Head Start providers had to temporarily close during the 2013 shutdown, Education Week reported at the time.
Nearly every school district receives formula funds that states are expected to receive on their behalf on Oct. 1. Districts on average nationwide rely on federal funds for 8-10% of their overall budget, though some districts—particularly those in high-poverty areas—use federal money for a much larger share of their overall operations.
A longer shutdown could also spell trouble for core Education Department functions like collecting and reporting data, monitoring and supporting grant recipients, and conducting civil rights investigations. In some cases, Trump administration priorities would legally have to grind to a halt.
In 2013, schools across the country had to revamp field trip plans for destinations in the nation’s capital and beyond—such as national parks—that weren’t open.
In the event of a government shutdown, major safety-net programs like Social Security and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) would continue unaffected.
Other agencies’ published plans anticipating the current shutdown threat foreshadow key Trump administration priorities like immigrant enforcement and military deployments to major U.S. cities continuing.
On the flip side, everything from small business loans to national park openings could be in jeopardy with each day that a federal shutdown persists. Nearly a million workers nationwide could temporarily lose their jobs.
Federal courts—currently a central player in legal battles over Trump administration policies—could also run out of money to pay staff if a prolonged shutdown occurs.
Longer-term, Wall warns, a prolonged shutdown could further break down states and schools’ trust in the federal government to support education, and further budget cuts could ensue.
“You’re training people to no longer be able to bank on having this money,” Wall said. “If that happens, districts will respond by planning conservatively.”
2025-09-29 19:13:43
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